The narrow victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the referendum on 16 April does not guarantee a politically strong and trouble-free presidency.

The Shia Block is realistically the key determinant for national reconciliation to occur in Iraq. However, its internal divisions make it a problematic and non-unitary interlocutor for national, regional, and international initiatives.

On 3 March, clashes erupted between the PKK-linked forces and the KDP’s Rojava Peshmerga near Khanasor in the district of Shingal.

This policy brief argues that the main challenge for the normalisation of Ankara-Baghdad relations lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions.

Policy makers of Iraq and the KRI who wish to pursue paths of their own design, must look carefully at the trends in power dynamics and the policies of the global and regional powers before designing their strategies.

Without sufficient deradicalisation policies, including within the education system, the narrative of the Islamic State will lie dormant or transform, creating the potential for another extremist group to emerge.

Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.