The Future of Syria: From the Rojava’s Perspective
- Amjad Othman, Vice President, The Syrian Democratic Council
- Patrick Haenni, Advisor, Humanitarian Dialogue Centre (Moderator)
This debate between Patrick Haenni, Senior Advisor for Middle East Affairs at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, and Amjad Osman, a member of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), examined the status of the Autonomous Administration in Northeastern Syria (otherwise known as Rojava), as well as the political and geographical challenges in both the Rojava and the rest of Syria. They also shed light on the role of relevant actors, particularly Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, in seeking a resolution to the Syrian crisis.
Geopolitical and Political Fragmentation and the Future of Syria
Patrick Haenni highlights Syria’s clear geographical fragmentation over the past decade, where zones of influence have solidified into tangible realities. He inquired about the Autonomous Administration’s perspective on this situation and the potential for overcoming these divisions to reunify the country.
In response, Amjad Osman asserted that Syria’s fundamental problem lies in its constitution, which has historically failed to represent the aspirations of all Syrians, serving instead the interests of a specific ruling faction. He emphasized that the 13-year-long crisis reflects the failure of the centralized political system to accommodate Syria’s diversity. He stressed that the solution lies in rebuilding the state based on decentralized democratic principles that acknowledge Syria’s multiple identities and address unresolved issues, including the Kurdish question.”We believe Syria needs a new constitution that reflects the aspirations of all Syrians. Any attempt to bypass this reality will not lead to lasting peace or stability.” Osman further underscored the necessity of redefining Syria’s national identity, arguing that this new identity must embrace the country’s ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity to avoid repeating the historical mistakes that led to state and ethnic fragmentation.
Negotiations with Damascus and Prospects for Syrian-Syrian Dialogue
Haenni raised the issue of negotiations conducted between the Autonomous Administration and Damascus, whether through direct talks or Russian mediation, questioning the viability of these efforts more than a decade into the crisis. In response, Amjad Osman asserted that the Syrian regime remains resistant to genuine political or constitutional change, perceiving the crisis as a rebellion to be suppressed rather than a political issue requiring resolution. He emphasized that intra-Syrian dialogue is essential to exert internal pressure on the regime, but the opposition itself remains deeply divided, with factions confronting each other rather than seeking common solutions. “Today, Syrians face each other with their backs against each other, not their faces. We need a genuine discussion that transcends political differences and aims for justice and stability for all Syrians.”
Osman pointed out that pressure on the Syrian regime should be exerted both internally, through the unification of the opposition, and externally, by regional states that have normalized ties with Damascus. He argued that these states should leverage their engagement to push the regime toward a comprehensive political settlement.
The Impact of Regional Interventions on Syrian Cohesion
Osman maintained that the Syrian crisis is not solely an internal conflict but has been significantly shaped by regional power struggles and foreign interventions. He noted that neighboring countries have externalized their own conflicts into Syria, exacerbating internal divisions among Syrians. “The challenges facing Syria are not just political but also humanitarian. Certain communities, particularly the Kurds, have been subjected to systematic demographic changes that must be addressed to ensure long-term stability. He insisted that the resolution to Syria’s crisis must be purely Syrian, founded on direct dialogue among all domestic stakeholders and independent of external agendas.
Turkish Military Escalation and Intensifying Polarization
The discussion further explored tensions between Turkey and Rojava, particularly in light of escalating Turkish military operations. Osman noted that Turkey views the Autonomous Administration’s project as a threat to its national security, despite the fact that it was not originally a point of contention with Ankara. He added that the Kurdish issue in Turkey has a direct impact on its relations with Syrian Kurds, further complicating the conflict. “We hope to see peace initiatives emerge, as such efforts would contribute to the stability of Syria and the broader region.” The discussion emphasized the need for international mediation to de-escalate tensions, arguing that continued Turkish military operations exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and fuel migration, leading to further demographic shifts which could crystalise the crisis.
The Role of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region in Resolving the Syrian Crisis
The discussion also examined the potential role of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region in stabilizing Syria. Osman highlighted Iraq’s membership in the Arab Liaison Committee on Syria, positioning it as a potential influencer in Syrian political developments. He urged Baghdad to leverage its ties with Damascus to advocate for a comprehensive political solution. “Iraq fully understands the complexities of the Syrian landscape due to the significant social, religious, and cultural parallels between the two countries”, Osman stated.
Regarding the Kurdistan Region, Osman commended its positive role in sheltering Syrian refugees and mitigating humanitarian suffering through its border crossing with Rojava. He also pointed out that the Al-Hol and Roj camps, which house ISIS-affiliated individuals and their families, pose significant security and humanitarian challenges requiring regional and international cooperation. “Any collapse in northeastern Syria will threaten the entire region. We need assistance, not further military strikes.”
The session concluded with a consensus that a military solution is not viable for Syria’s future. Instead, a comprehensive political dialogue encompassing all Syrian stakeholders, with regional and international backing, is imperative for lasting stability. Participants stressed that international initiatives should focus on addressing the root causes of the crisis rather than merely managing its symptoms.
MERI Forum 2024
The Future of Syria: Prospects for Peace and Recovery