Summary of a policy discussion on:
Current dynamics in Syria and the way forward
Attendees:
A group of experts and opinion leaders on Syria,
along with politicians at the leadership level
Recent events in Syria represent a turning point in the history of the Middle East, where internal dynamics are intertwined with regional and international ones. Syria is not just a theater for local conflicts, but has become an arena for competition between major powers, which directly affects the nature of possible solutions. Within this complex landscape, the Kurdish issue stands out as one of the most sensitive and urgent priorities, with its reciprocal impact on the other components of the Syrian conflict and the country’s future.
Regional and International Dimensions of the Conflict
The Syrian conflict is deeply intertwined with broader transformations in the Middle East. Regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, and Israel play significant roles, each pursuing its own interests. Turkey faces setbacks in its expansionist agenda. Its support for armed factions has proven a double-edged sword, while unresolved issues surrounding the Kurdish question at home overshadow its Syrian policy. Iran seeks to restore its political and military influence in Syria by reviving previous alliances and solidifying its presence. Israel approaches Syria primarily from a security perspective, viewing ideologically motivated armed groups as a threat to its stability. The Gulf states, though wary of the Syrian situation, have refrained from taking decisive steps towards reconstruction or supporting a clear political settlement. Western powers such as the United States and France remain deeply involved, focusing on stabilising Kurdish-controlled areas in North East (NE) Syria and countering Iranian influence.
Internal Transformations in Syria
Internally, Syrian society suffers from sharp divisions along sectarian, ethnic, and class lines. Despite significant challenges, the Syrian regime has maintained its security apparatus and ideological institutions, making a complete collapse unlikely. However, societal changes have underscored deep fractures among Syria’s diverse components. Previously opposed to federalism, communities like the Alawites and Druze now advocate for autonomy, decentralisation, or federalism to protect their interests.
NE Syria (Rojava), under the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), faces internal divisions among Kurdish factions and lacks a unified political vision. These challenges hinder efforts to stabilise the region and achieve international recognition for the Autonomous Administration.
The Kurdish Issue and Its Future in Syria
The Kurdish issue in Syria mirrors the broader conflict, with overlapping national, regional, and international dimensions. Internally, Kurdish factions remain divided: some align with the Autonomous Administration in NE Syria, while others are allied with the Syrian opposition. This division impedes the Kurds from presenting a unified vision for their future within a reimagined Syrian state.
While international support for the Kurds, particularly from the United States and Western powers, is significant, it remains conditional and lacks long-term political guarantees. To advance their cause, Kurdish groups must address internal divisions and articulate a cohesive political vision encompassing their cultural, political, and social rights within the framework of the Syrian state.
Challenges and Future Scenarios
The Syrian crisis faces numerous challenges that complicate the path to sustainable solutions. The most prominent of these challenges is the sectarian and ethnic division within Syrian society, where sectarian revenge has escalated and divisions have deepened. This reality makes it difficult to build a unified central state.
At the regional level, external interventions deepen the conflict. Turkey seeks to safeguard its influence, while Iran aims to bolster its presence through allied armed groups. Israel focuses on mitigating threats from armed groups and Iranian influence.
In this context, two main scenarios emerge. The first is an urgent international intervention to impose a comprehensive political settlement. The second is the continuation of internal conflict, increasing the likelihood of the country fragmenting into semi-independent regions.
Political Recommendations for Kurdish political actors
To navigate the complex Syrian situation, Kurdish forces and other stakeholders must work on multiple fronts. The following recommendations address key priorities.
The Kurdish Political Forces in Syria, should:
- Unify political ranks: Develop a unified political vision, reflecting Kurdish aspirations within a democratic framework, compatible with other Syrian components. This can be achieved through institutionalised dialogue, workshops, and an inclusive conference. A unified vision should incorporate Kurdish national demands and the rights of all ethnic and religious communities within a unified Syria.
- Facilitate the return of displaced Kurds: Collaborate with Syrian and international partners to ensure the return of displaced Kurds to areas such as Afrin and other Kurdish territories, through an internationally monitored process.
- Strengthen regional relations: Engage neighbouring countries, particularly Turkey, to reduce tensions and foster stability. This requires reconsidering links with (keeping a distance from) the Kurdistan Workers’ Party while seeking its removal from the terrorist list to ease relations with Turkey and enhance international acceptance.
The Autonomous Administration in NE Syria, should
- Build democratic governance: Establish a transparent, institutional governance system free from ideological influences. Prioritise good governance, the rule of law, and democratic practices.
- Engage with Damascus: Strengthen ties with Syrian political and social components, influence constitutional dialogue, and shape Syria’s future within a unified framework.
- Secure Political Recognition: Leverage administrative and military achievements in NE Syria to gain political and diplomatic support. Strengthen relations with Europe and the United States while accommodating their conditions and priorities.
For International Partners (United States, Europe, and Arab States):
- Support democratic transition: Encourage Syrian actors to establish a decentralised governance system based on democracy and human rights.
- Mediate regional dialogue: Facilitate meaningful dialogue between Turkey and the Autonomous Administration to end hostilities and foster future mutually rewarding cooperation.
Conclusion
The Syrian conflict reflects long-standing complexities but also presents an opportunity to rebuild the state in a way that embraces its diversity. Addressing the Kurdish issue as a cornerstone of the broader conflict could pave the way for a comprehensive solution. A new Syria must establish a political system based on citizenship, equality, and inclusive participation to build a common future. Achieving this vision requires genuine political will, robust international cooperation, and a commitment to long-term stability over short-term interests.
Date of Meeting: Tuesday, 14 January 2025
Format: Dialogue conducted under Chatham House Rules